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As GAIM works with the Core projects, both by collaborative efforts as well as by intersection of membership, I believe that the answer to this and the many more specific questions which we now face will come to light.Three linked themes are emerging in the study of global environmental change: 1) linkages and/or interfaces, 2) integrative experiments or important tests of our understanding, and 3) the interplay of simplicity with and against complexity.Within these macro-system experiments, we are beginning to understand the human drivers and, in time, the feedbacks.We are not mastering complexity, but neither are we shying away.Important linkage or integrative experiments and tests are NOW being done: a) the ocean carbon model inter-comparison project has linked atmosphere GCMÕs (mainly as drivers) with ocean GCMÕs containing carbon chemistry and crude biology; b) similarly, the terrestrial carbon models are being driven (partially) by GCM results; c) we are taking the preliminary steps with the GCM Atmosphere transport codes studies for tackling the chemistry connection; and d) we are beginning to tie together these three linked subsystems and consider tracers (CO) as tests of the overall system understanding.Finally we are thinking about projects that involve measurements and modelling which link land systems (dynamic vegetation models, nutrient dynamics, soil moisture, and run-off) to drainage basin models (water flow and biochemistry in rivers) to GCM climate change drivers (initially one-way coupling using GCM results as drivers for very large drainage basins such as the Amazon).New data are becoming available from remote sensing which provide a global perspective on wetland distribution and classification, but which are not yet reconciled with ground-based ecological and hydrological data.Further, there is a gulf between the scale of trace gas emissions as measured from the ground, and the measurable atmospheric effects of this based on remote sensing.
We would like to see integrated models as soon as possible, and indeed it would be possible to couple existing models at the present time to create such an Earth system model.
The initial nine parameters proposed by workshop participants were: Hydrology, Temperature, Primary production, Vegetation, Soil, Salinity, Chemical information, Transport of organics and sediment, and Topography/geomorphology.
These may be subsequently refined to establish a robust set of orthogonal parameters.
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The IGBP Task Force for Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM) is in full swing.